Local broadcast television advertising spending is predicted to increase by 5.9% to $9.91 billion in 2024. According to a new projection by Borrell Associates.

After the election, Borrell predicts local broadcast advertising to fall to $8.77 billion, the lowest amount since at least 2020.

Local cable-TV spending is predicted to reduce 6% to $2.32 billion in 2024, dropping further to $2.12 billion in 2025.

Streaming video advertising (over-the-top and linked TV) among local purchasers is expected to grow by 3.9%, reaching $23.3 billion. That is less than Borrell predicted in its last forecast.

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The slowing growth rate for local streaming video surprised Corey Elliott, executive vice president of local market intelligence and Borrell’s principal forecaster.

“While there’s a lot of passion around digital video, it presents a bit of a challenge for local businesses,” Elliott stated. “They’ve told us in surveys that they’re not sure how to buy it or how it fits into their marketing strategy. They are unaware that it is less expensive than traditional broadcast television. That all leads to a more gradual increase in OTT spending.”

“That being said,” he noted, “the OTT jackrabbit continues to outpace everything else. It’s the fastest-growing type of advertising and is presently the fourth-largest of the 18 forms we monitor.”

Borrell predicts that local streaming advertising would total $24.7 billion by 2025.

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Overall, local advertising is predicted to rise by 3.2%, which Borrell termed as a “healthy” rate despite being lower than its previous projection of 4.4% growth.

The forecaster attributed the downward adjustment to new data from Borrell’s primary sources, which included the US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Woods & Pool, D&B, IBIS World, and Borrell’s quarterly SMB Business Barometer.

Over the next five years, Borrell expects total local advertising to grow at a compound annual rate of 2.2%.

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“For the past three quarters, we haven’t seen a lot of variation in SMBs’ [small and midsized businesses] attitudes about the economy and their plans to invest in advertising,” Elliott stated. “They’re mostly neutral and slightly positive about the economy, but we’re still not seeing anything that would signal the bigger spring-back that many are hoping for.”

Since Q3 of last year and continuing into Q2 of this year, Borrell’s barometer study has continuously revealed that 50% of small and medium-sized enterprises believe it is more difficult to sustain a small business than it was six months ago.

Individual local markets with the greatest gains were Rapid City, South Dakota, up 32.9% to $190.61 million; Springfield, Missouri, up 30.4% to $515.71 million; Missoula, Montana, up 14.1% to $209.51 million; Dothan, Alabama, up 11.3% to $96.41 million; and Flint-Saginaw-Bay City, Michigan, up 11.1% to $389.08 million.

According to Borrell, the most significant declines are noted in Watertown, New York, down 5.1% to $76.2 million; Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, down 3% to $3.140 billion; Orlando, Florida, down 2.6% to $2.192 billion; and Gainesville, Florida, down 2% to $152.55 million.